It’s 2018. The first book to try to formulate probability/chance was by Abraham de Moivre in exactly 300 years ago in 1718.
If you roll two dices, can you get two numbers that sum to 14? No. Coz the maximum number in each dice is 6. But can you get a number 11? Yes. That’s probable. How much probable? Can we measure? These are some basic probability that every science student learns in high school. But the underlying philosophy here is striking:
“Not everything is equally probable. Some are more likely than others. Some arguments, ideas are better than others, but based on some established ideas or agreed upon assumptions. How do we measure?”
What are your chances of waking up tomorrow? Is it 100%? What’s the chance that your relationship will last? Are these even measurable? What does it mean when you say I hope? Does that automatically translate into a highly probable future? Why don’t you get that million dollar lottery? Can you win some bucks at those Vegas gambling playing poker or blackjack? 😉 What’s your chance that you will win the game? It wasn’t that easy for mathematicians and statisticians to formulate what it really means by what’s probable,what’s expected in the world of uncertainty we live in and deal with. And in science, who doesn’t deal with some basic probability equations in their data.
I absolutely admire the talk by Dr. Ana at Lawrence Livermore National Lab on “Understanding the world through statistics.” who introduced me to this book.
“The best thing about being a statistician is that you get to play around everyone’s backyard.” – The great statistician John Tukey.
May be I can make a new phrase for CS programmer too..haha.
“The best thing about being a computer programmer is that you get to make toys for everyone.” LoL.
Basketball statistics and why Stephen Curry attempts more 3 point shots than 2 point shots: